According to @ai_9684xtpa, a single buyer purchased 3,000 BTC call options on Deribit with a USD 100,000 strike expiring on 2026-01-30, paying about USD 2.86 million in premium. According to @ai_9684xtpa, the reported break-even at expiry is approximately USD 100,953.67, implying the position loses money if BTC settles below that level on the expiration date. According to @ai_9684xtpa, if BTC finishes below USD 100,000 at expiry, the entire USD 2.86 million premium would be lost, though the buyer could exit earlier if BTC rallies.

According to the source, a widely viewed X post claims most people will only buy Bitcoin once BTC trades above 100,000, flagging a potential retail FOMO threshold at a round-number breakout, source: X post on Nov 30, 2025. Round-number levels such as 100,000 often concentrate orders and act as liquidity magnets, increasing the odds of stop-runs and fakeouts around the first touch, source: price clustering evidence in the Journal of Financial Markets. For validation, traders can anchor to the prior all-time high near 73,000 from March 2024 and monitor options open interest clustering at the 100,000 strike on Deribit to gauge gamma and volatility risk into the level, source: Bloomberg price data for BTC ATH and Deribit Insights on strike OI concentration. Risk gauges to track into any 100,000 test include perpetual funding rates and US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, as sustained positive funding and strong ETF inflows supported upside continuation during 2024 rallies, source: major exchanges’ funding dashboards and iShares/Bloomberg ETF flow trackers. In practice, consider planning for both breakout-continuation and liquidity-sweep scenarios around 100,000, using alerts at 80,000, 90,000, and 100,000 with confirmation from funding, options skew, and ETF flow momentum to avoid chasing weak moves, source: trading best practices derived from Glassnode cycle studies and institutional flow monitoring.